After a decade of record-breaking arrivals, Thailand’s tourism engine is sputtering. By September 2025 the kingdom saw only 24.11 million foreign visitors – about 7–7.5% fewer than a year earlier. The shortfall hit hardest in Thai Airways’ top source market: Chinese travelers plunged roughly 35% (only ~3.4M tourists). The Tourism Authority has already cut its annual 2025 forecast to ~33M visitors (vs 35.5M in 2024). Economists note tourism once powered nearly 20% of GDP, so this reversal “isn’t just a statistic” but a crucial warning sign for an economy that long counted on beach vacations.
“Hope is not a strategy,” warned industry analysts, as Thailand’s tourism machine — once roaring — “is losing momentum”.
Even as arrivals thin, the Thai government is rolling out a new playbook. Officials openly “are monitoring how many Chinese tourists will arrive” after stimulus measures, but they are also chasing entirely new sources of growth. Gulf News reports the five-year Destination Thailand Visa (DTV) was introduced precisely to target “long-stay residents rather than just short-term tourists”. In short, Bangkok is treating outsiders not merely as holidaymakers but as future residents or investors. Our own Tourism Rebound Hits Wall analysis showed these measures are geared toward wooing expats and investors even as hotel lobbies empty. Travelers searching for deals might, for example, take advantage of last-minute package offers via Expedia while Bangkok’s attractions are unexpectedly quiet.
Betting on Tech: The $11B AI Push
Parallel to the tourism slump, Thailand is laying massive bets on technology and AI. In 2025 alone the Board of Investment (BOI) says companies applied for 709.9 billion baht (≈$21.9 billion) in new projects — up 23% from 2024. Remarkably, 119 of those projects fall under the “digital economy” category (mostly data centers and cloud services), totaling 612.8 billion baht (~$18.9 billion). The momentum carries into government figures too: Thailand’s Foreign Affairs ministry notes the BOI approved about $7.3 billion in digital/AI-related projects in 2023 alone. That public push dovetails with foreign investment: Dubai’s Damac Group just earmarked $1 billion for Thai data centers, aiming to build out hundreds of megawatts of AI-ready capacity. Even Singaporean investors are leading the charge — BOI data shows applications from Singapore topped 359.8 billion baht (≈$11.1 billion) during this period, far above any other country’s commitment.
“The benefits are clear — fewer hurdles for residency, easier work permits, and attractive tax perks,” says BOI Secretary-General Narit Therdsteerasukdi.
The government’s rhetoric echoes this rush: as one deputy minister explained, “global talent chooses Thailand” because of newly relaxed rules. Visa reforms (like the 5-year DTV and a 10-year Long-Term Residency visa) and corporate incentives are all meant to lure tech founders and expats. In practice, Thailand’s pivot is a bet that high-tech industries and wealthy new residents can help “offset missing tourist dollars”. Tech start-ups, AI labs and chip fabs are now the poster children. In fact, the recent Visa Crossroads report from TTA details how the new visas and BOI incentives form a “grand visa experiment” to reshape Thailand’s economy.
Still, practical steps are underway today. Digital nomads staying in Thailand can now pick up a local data plan at any 7-Eleven or airport — or sign up for a pan-Asia eSIM like Breeze eSIM to stay connected nationwide. Urban tech hubs are expanding (Bangkok topped a recent global “digital nomad city” ranking), and co-working spaces abound. In short, Thailand is actively marketing itself as an Asian tech anchor as travel lags behind.
Meet Breeze — the easiest way to stay online in Thailand.
No plastic SIMs. No queues. Just instant data when you land.
Skip the airport SIM hunt. With Breeze eSIM, you’re connected the moment you arrive. Choose your plan, scan your QR, and enjoy fast data across Thailand — prepaid, secure, and hassle-free.
Travel smarter. Stay connected with Breeze.
The High-Tech Bet Faces Reality
The scale of these investments is staggering. Combined government initiatives, BOI projects and foreign commitments easily run into tens of billions of dollars. If one counts the big tech deals and planned infrastructure, the numbers rival the tourism sector’s entire size — hence the talk of an ~$11B AI pivot. Yet experts caution the payoff is far from certain. Thailand’s economy still has to contend with weak exports, a strong baht and rising household debt. Reuters economists warned as of mid-2025 that growth was “nearing zero” amid the tourist slowdown. In other words, plugging the gap with tech is easier said than done.
Local innovators applaud the push, but they also see hurdles. Red tape remains, and many projects are at the planning stage. On the infrastructure side, the BOI is just beginning to cut red tape: in late-2025 it rolled out new tax breaks and “fast-track” status specifically for data centers, smart manufacturing and AI chip fabs. Provincial governments have even started repackaging second- and third-tier cities as tech investment zones. Still, the ecosystem is nascent: skilled programmers, research labs and venture capital all need to catch up for the pivot to bear fruit. Meanwhile, tourism’s decline — from 39M pre-pandemic to an expected ~33M this year — is a hard void to fill overnight.
Foreign confidence shows early signs: global firms and wealthy expats are investing. A condo boom for second homes is underway from Bangkok to Phuket, as one TTA story noted foreign spending is rising despite emptier resorts. But skeptics warn higher prices and bureaucracy may screen out all but the richest. Even so, many see this as a sea change. As one minister put it, “Thailand is now courting long-term residents – digital nomads, tech entrepreneurs, well-heeled retirees – as the cornerstone of a more resilient, innovative economy”.
Entrepreneurs eager to join the wave should plan ahead. Professional services are marketing their help; for example, visa specialists like Thai-Co offer 5-year DTV packages to smooth immigration hurdles. (Foreigners can visit Thai-Co’s DTV visa page for guidance on the new long-stay permits.) Work-permit lawyers note that online e-Work Permits and digital banking are still evolving. In short: the window is open, but success may require local know-how.
The Road Ahead for Thailand’s Economy
Thailand now stands at a crossroads between two futures. Will the high-tech projects blossom into a digital boom that offsets lost tourism revenue, or will obstacles slow the transition? The scale of investment and the innovation of new visas are unprecedented for Thailand. Still, only time will tell if the pivot pays off.
Expats and investors watching this shift should weigh both sides: there are new opportunities (specialized visas, tech jobs, rising start-ups) and lingering risks (policy uncertainty, bureaucratic delays). If tourism remains weak but these initiatives attract the “creative class,” the overall economy could become more diversified. Conversely, some economists caution that even $11B invested in tech is small relative to a $900B economy unless it triggers broader growth.
For now, Thailand is moving away from reliance on visa-free beach vacations. As one analyst summarized: “The tourism boom was supposed to keep climbing, but reality diverged sharply,” and now Bangkok must “seek new drivers”. That shift is unmistakable. Expats and tech-watchers should keep an eye on the next wave of startups and government projects — they may define Thailand’s economy for the next decade.
Read Next: Thailand’s Digital Arrival Card: Smooth Landing or New Layer of Red Tape? – an explainer on Thailand’s new online visa form and what it means for travelers.
Our mission: The Thailand Advisor stands for in-depth, independent journalism on the forces shaping Thailand’s future. We empower expats, investors and informed travelers with honest analysis they can’t find elsewhere. By staying informed with TTA, you join our mission to make Thailand’s economy and society more transparent and accountable.
Meet Breeze — the easiest way to stay online in Thailand.
No plastic SIMs. No queues. Just instant data when you land.
Skip the airport SIM hunt. With Breeze eSIM, you’re connected the moment you arrive. Choose your plan, scan your QR, and enjoy fast data across Thailand — prepaid, secure, and hassle-free.
Travel smarter. Stay connected with Breeze.
