Duopoly Now, Price War Next: Grab vs LINE MAN After Foodpanda

In May 2025, Germany’s Delivery Hero stunned Thailand’s tech scene by announcing Foodpanda would cease operations on May 23. After 13 years in the country, Foodpanda bowed out amid unrelenting losses and intense competition. This left the once-fragmented market with only two dominant players. According to industry analysts, Lineman Wongnai held about 44% of the market before Foodpanda left, while GrabFood had roughly 39.4%. Foodpanda, by contrast, was languishing at just under 15%. In the words of a Foodpanda insider, “Line Man and Grab… these two are actually the most commonly used platforms in Thailand.” This exit consolidated most of the market onto Grab and LINE MAN Wongnai, creating a hard duopoly almost overnight.

Two Giants Stand Tall

Grab and LINE MAN have each spent the past few years building up capital reserves and user bases across Thailand. Grab, the Southeast Asian ride-hailing titan, leveraged its massive network of drivers and aggressive promotions to extend its lead. LINE MAN, backed by Japanese chat-app operator LINE Corp and SoftBank, merged with Thai food review platform Wongnai in 2020 to strengthen its foothold. By late 2024, LINE MAN Wongnai was posting double-digit revenue growth and planning a 2025 IPO on the Bangkok Stock Exchange. Its CFO, In Young Chung, noted the company’s mission: “We are in a position to really help digitalise Thailand,” he told Reuters. This signals how LINE MAN views its expansion as part of Thailand’s broader digital economy.

Meanwhile, Grab publicly touts its scale and market position. In its press materials, Grab calls itself “Thailand’s No.1 food delivery app” and highlights its ability to drive national programs. Grab Thailand’s head Chantsuda Thananitayaudom even framed its strategy around the new government stimulus scheme: “Grab is fully prepared to support the government’s economic stimulus policy and to facilitate convenient access for more than 20 million eligible citizens nationwide,” she said. In practice, that campaign offered merchants rock-bottom commissions (as low as 7%) and co-funded discounts to tap into the state’s “Kon La Krueng Plus” spending program.

For now, each platform claims a chunk of the market pie. Observers estimate their combined share exceeds 80%. And even as COVID-era bubble-bursted profitability, both companies have repeatedly doubled down on promotions. “GrabFood is fully prepared to support the stimulus scheme,” its country head promised, while LINE MAN rolled out its own merchant incentives to stay competitive. With one big competitor gone, their rivalry has intensified rather than eased.

Discounts, Commissions and the Price Battle

With only two major players left, Thailand’s food delivery ecosystem has entered a frenetic discount war. Grab and LINE MAN are both spending hundreds of millions of baht on marketing and subsidies to lock in restaurants and customers. In October 2025, for example, Grab launched a “9-Fold Sales Boost” campaign: merchants signing up for the co-payment scheme got commissions slashed to 7-9% (down from the usual ~30%), plus cash loans and free delivery perks. LINE MAN responded by matching or even beating those offers. Industry reports note both apps have slashed gross-profit fees to near-zero for select merchants under the stimulus.

“Merchants registering on the first day will enjoy a special commission rate of 7%,” Grab announced.

This orchestrated price war is unprecedented in Thailand’s gig economy. Restaurants and small shops eagerly sign up to get free advertising and minimal fees. Even government officials have taken notice: Thailand’s anti-monopoly watchdog recently warned delivery platforms to avoid unfair markups or face fines. Back in 2020, authorities already warned Grab and LINE MAN against hiking commissions during the pandemic, and today any attempt to push prices back up could trigger regulatory scrutiny. For now, however, both giants are racing to capture every possible order — often at the expense of margins.

Merchants and Riders in the Crossfire

Local restaurateurs are the immediate beneficiaries — and victims — of this battle. On one hand, many merchants can finally turn a profit: no commission deals and free promos flood in. On the other, the hyper-competition means expectations for discounts are now baked into consumer habits. “The promotions offered by Foodpanda aren’t as attractive as those provided by LINE MAN and Grab,” notes a Bangkok university student – a fact that helped doom Foodpanda but now means Grab/LINE must keep upping incentives.

Drivers, too, feel the pinch. As Al Jazeera reported in 2023, Thai couriers have seen fees and driver pay fluctuate wildly as apps chase market share. Today, many rides-hailing drivers pivot to food delivery to make ends meet, only to face unpredictable bonuses. Industry surveys suggest the average Grab or LINE MAN driver is receiving less per-trip commission than in 2020, though total orders are higher. (Both firms defended their cut-rates as necessary for scale, and even rolled out rider incentives and insurance packages in October 2025 to sweeten the deal.)

Financial investors are watching closely. Grab is a publicly traded company in Singapore, and analysts will soon judge its Thailand unit’s performance now that one competitor is gone. LINE MAN Wongnai, meanwhile, is preparing for its IPO and touts its growth: it reported 2024 revenue up 17% to US$451 million, with gross profit up 35% (implying its large digital economy footprint). Thai regulators and shareholders will both be keen to see if this fat duopoly can actually generate profit, or if endless subsidies will erode the bottom line. One veteran Thai economist cautions that domestic players have “risks of falling behind” if the legal and competitive environment doesn’t stay healthy.

Navigating Thailand’s Shift

For international investors and entrepreneurs, Thailand’s delivery duopoly is a flashpoint illustrating the broader business climate. The government’s aggressive stimulus — from co-payment schemes to foreign investment reforms — shows Bangkok wants to ignite consumer spending and attract capital. As one Thailand Advisor analyst put it, after decades of protection the Cabinet is finally “moving from protection to building competitive potential”. Yet this also means foreign entrants face massive incumbents.

Given the rapid changes, doing business in Thailand calls for local expertise. Companies like Siat Consulting can help foreign founders navigate Thai ownership rules and obtain the necessary permits. For example, TTA previously noted that rising foreign equity caps and streamlined approvals were intended to make such ventures easier. Similarly, savvy investors should heed evolving policies: if Grab or LINE MAN seek regulator approval for future deals, transparency on fees and competition will be under the microscope.

For now, the consolidation has concentrated power — and risk — in just two platforms. Regulators have already signaled they won’t allow abuse. The Office of Trade Competition Commission, for instance, has warned that “unfair commercial activity that causes damage” will incur hefty penalties. Both Grab and LINE MAN have pledged to comply and even offer commission relief to merchants. But insiders warn that once government aid fades, these apps will look to monetize the market again, likely by hiking fees or reducing discounts. As the duopoly settles in, every stakeholder — from restaurants to couriers — should prepare for turbulence.

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